The Economy of Bangladesh: A Quarter Century of Development by Azizur Rahman Khan

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The Economy of Bangladesh: A Quarter Century of Development
By Azizur Rahman Khan
The Economy of Bangladesh: A Quarter Century of Development

Contents
List of Tables x
Acknowledgments xiii
List of Abbreviations xiv
1 Introduction 1
The context 1
Successes and failures 3
An outline 8
2 Growth and Structural Change: An Overview 10
Growth and structure of output 10
Demographic transition 15
Change in the structure of employment 17
3 Macroeconomic Accounts: The Structure of Demand 22
Issues and puzzles 22
Rising rates of saving and investment 22
The external balance 26
Foreign capital inflow 27
Capital outflow 30
Selected macroeconomic issues concerning prices,
budget, money and banking 33
4 The Emerging Pattern of Structural Change 39
Historical experience 39
Structural change of the Bangladesh economy in the
historical context 44
Desirable direction of the emerging pattern of change 47
5 Agriculture: Past Success and Future Prospects 52
Declining importance of agriculture 52
Production performance 54
Factors behind the growth of agriculture 60
Institutional reform 62
Future direction 64
6 Structure, Growth and Direction of Manufacturing
Industries 67
The size and structure of manufacturing industries 67
Changing structure of manufacturing 70
Labor productivity, factor intensity and profitability 74
Gender distribution of employment 77
Labor productivity, factor intensity and profitability by
size and ownership 80
Cottage industries 82
Incentives and obstacles 85
7 Trade and Global Links 89
Trade regime and development 89
An evaluation of the reformed trade regime 91
Export-led development? 94
Merchandize imports 98
Remittances 100
Global links: foreign direct investment, foreign debt
and exchange rate 102
8 Infrastructure and Environment 108
Introduction 108
Transport 108
Energy 112
Skill development 118
Environment 122
9 Income Distribution, Poverty and Living Standard 1 26
Introduction 126
Measuring income 127
Measuring inequality and its sources 129
Poverty reduction 142
Indicators of living standard 150
Main findings 156
10 Conclusion: Credits, Constraints and Prospects 157
Factors behind the achievements 157
Failures, reasons thereof and challenges 160
Governance 163
The future 169
Annex to Chapters 2 and 3: Bangladesh National Accounts 172
Annex to Chapter 9 177
An assessment of the survey data 177
Some additional data on inequality and poverty estimates 183
Notes 186
Bibliography 203
Index 207 

List of Tables
2.1 A verage annual growth rates 11
2.2 Sectoral composition of GDP 12
2.3 D emographic indicators 16
2.4 Sectoral distribution of employed labor force 18
3.1 Investment and components of savings 24
3.2 Balance of payments 28
3.3 External resources for the government 29
3.4 Indicators of inflation 33
3.5 Annual percent change in money supply 34
3.6 P ercent change in bank credit to different users 35
3.7 Government revenue, expenditure and financing deficit 35
4.1 Structure of employment in leading industrial countries 40
4.2 S tructural change in employment and GDP in the Republic of Korea 41
4.3 Structural change in employment and GDP in China 42
4.4 Recent structure of employment and GDP: India and Bangladesh 46
5.1 A griculture’s contribution to household income 53
5.2 Land endowment and utilization 54
5.3 A rea, output and yield of different varieties of rice 56
5.4 A rea, production and yield of wheat 57
5.5 A nnual import of rice and wheat 58
5.6 N on-crop agriculture: livestock, forestry and fishery 59
5.7 G rowth of irrigation 60
5.8 A ccess to land in rural Bangladesh and inequality 63
6.1 C omparison of the SMI/CIS value added with the GDP
value added in manufacturing 68
6.2 B asic indicators of large- and medium-scale
manufacturing industries 69
6.3 I ndex of industrial production 71
6.4 Top ten industries in terms of value added and
employment 72
6.5 Foreign sales as percent of total sales 73
6.6 Performance indicators for major industries 75
6.7 W omen in manufacturing industries 78
6.8 Performance indicators for manufacturing enterprises
of different size 80
6.9 Performance indicators for manufacturing enterprises
by ownership type 81
6.10 Basic indicators for cottage industries 82
6.11 Selected performance indicators for cottage industries 83
6.12 Composition of employment in cottage enterprises 84
6.13 Average annual wages and benefits in cottage industries 84
7.1 Trend in tariff rate 91
7.2 Comparative average tariff rates 92
7.3 Growth and composition of exports 97
7.4 Growth and composition of imports 98
7.5 Foreign direct investment 103
7.6 Foreign debt and debt service 104
7.7 “Real effective exchange rate” index 105
7.8 Taka/rupee nominal and real exchange rate 106
8.1 Shares of different modes of transport 110
8.2 Growth of road transport 111
8.3 Per capita energy use in 2011 112
8.4 Power generation by type of fuel 114
8.5 The composition of gas use 117
9.1 Income shares and inequality indices: rural Bangladesh 131
9.2 Income shares and inequality indices: urban Bangladesh 132
9.3 Income shares and inequality indices: all Bangladesh 133
9.4 A comparison of our estimates with the BBS estimates of Gini ratios 139
9.5 BBS/World Bank consumption poverty headcount rates 143
9.6 Comparison of poverty line deflators with the CPIs 144
9.7 Income poverty headcount rates based on our income
distribution and the BBS/World Bank poverty lines 146
9.8 Income poverty headcount rates based on our income distribution and the CPI-based updating
of poverty line 147
9.9 Index of real agricultural wages 150
9.10 Selected social indicators of development 151
9.11 Social indicators for the poorest and the richest quintiles of population 155
10.1 Business environment: enterprise survey 167
10.2 Doing business indicators 168
A9.1 Comparative estimates of income from HIES and
GDP accounts 178
A9.2 Per capita annual income of rural households 181
A9.3 Per capita annual income of urban households 182
A9.4 Selected inequality indices 184
A9.5 Income poverty gap: with CPI-based poverty lines 185

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