International Finance: Theory and Policy, Eleventh Edition, Global Edition PDF by Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc J. Melitz

By

International Finance: Theory & Policy, Eleventh Edition, Global Edition

by Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld, Marc J. Melitz

International finance theory et policy

Contents

Preface ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..13

1 Introduction 21

What Is International Economics About?……………………………………………………………………23

The Gains from Trade………………………………………………………………………………………………. 24

The Pattern of Trade………………………………………………………………………………………………… 25

How Much Trade?……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 25

Balance of Payments………………………………………………………………………………………………… 26

Exchange Rate Determination…………………………………………………………………………………… 27

International Policy Coordination………………………………………………………………………………. 27

The International Capital Market……………………………………………………………………………….. 28

International Economics: Trade and Money………………………………………………………………..29

Part 1 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 31

2 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 31

The National Income Accounts…………………………………………………………………………………33

National Product and National Income……………………………………………………………………….. 34

Capital Depreciation and International Transfers………………………………………………………….. 35

Gross Domestic Product…………………………………………………………………………………………… 35

National Income Accounting for an Open Economy………………………………………………………36

Consumption………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 36

Investment………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 36

Government Purchases……………………………………………………………………………………………… 37

The National Income Identity for an Open Economy……………………………………………………. 37

An Imaginary Open Economy……………………………………………………………………………………. 38

The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness…………………………………………………………… 38

Saving and the Current Account………………………………………………………………………………… 40

Private and Government Saving…………………………………………………………………………………. 41

box: The Mystery of the Missing Deficit…………………………………………………………………….42

The Balance of Payments Accounts……………………………………………………………………………44

Examples of Paired Transactions……………………………………………………………………………….. 45

The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity…………………………………………………………… 46

The Current Account, Once Again……………………………………………………………………………… 47

The Capital Account………………………………………………………………………………………………… 48

The Financial Account……………………………………………………………………………………………… 48

Statistical Discrepancy……………………………………………………………………………………………… 49

Official Reserve Transactions…………………………………………………………………………………….. 50

case study: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor……………………………….51

Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………55

3 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:

An Asset Approach 60

Exchange Rates and International Transactions…………………………………………………………..61

Domestic and Foreign Prices……………………………………………………………………………………… 61

Exchange Rates and Relative Prices…………………………………………………………………………….. 63

The Foreign Exchange Market………………………………………………………………………………….64

The Actors……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 64

box: Exchange Rates, Auto Prices, and Currency Wars…………………………………………………65

Characteristics of the Market…………………………………………………………………………………….. 66

Spot Rates and Forward Rates…………………………………………………………………………………… 68

Foreign Exchange Swaps…………………………………………………………………………………………… 69

Futures and Options………………………………………………………………………………………………… 69

The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets……………………………………………………………………70

Assets and Asset Returns………………………………………………………………………………………….. 70

box: Offshore Currency Markets: The Case of the Chinese Yuan……………………………………71

Risk and Liquidity…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 73

Interest Rates………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 74

Exchange Rates and Asset Returns…………………………………………………………………………….. 74

A Simple Rule…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 76

Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market…………………………………………. 77

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market………………………………………………………………78

Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition…………………………………………………………. 78

How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns…………………………….. 79

The Equilibrium Exchange Rate………………………………………………………………………………… 81

Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium………………………………………………………………. 83

The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate……………………………… 83

The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate………………………………. 85

case study: What Explains the Carry Trade?……………………………………………………………….85

Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………88

4 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 96

Money Defined: A Brief Review………………………………………………………………………………..97

Money as a Medium of Exchange………………………………………………………………………………. 97

Money as a Unit of Account……………………………………………………………………………………… 97

Money as a Store of Value………………………………………………………………………………………… 98

What Is Money?………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 98

How the Money Supply Is Determined……………………………………………………………………….. 98

The Demand for Money by Individuals……………………………………………………………………….99

Expected Return………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 99

Risk……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 100

Liquidity………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 100

Aggregate Money Demand…………………………………………………………………………………….. 100

The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply and Demand……………….. 102

Equilibrium in the Money Market……………………………………………………………………………. 103

Interest Rates and the Money Supply………………………………………………………………………… 104

Output and the Interest Rate……………………………………………………………………………………. 105

The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run……………………………………….. 106

Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate……………………………………………. 106

U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate……………………………………………… 109

Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate……………………………………….. 109

Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run………………………………….. 112

Money and Money Prices………………………………………………………………………………………… 112

The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes………………………………………………………. 113

Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels……………………………………………… 114

Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run…………………………………………………………. 115

Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics……………………………………………………………………. 116

Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility…………………………………………. 116

box: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe………………………………………. 118

Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate………………………………………….. 120

Exchange Rate Overshooting…………………………………………………………………………………… 123

case study: Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate in Emerging Countries…………………….. 123

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 126

5 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 131

The Law of One Price…………………………………………………………………………………………… 132

Purchasing Power Parity……………………………………………………………………………………….. 133

The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price…………………………………………….. 133

Absolute PPP and Relative PPP……………………………………………………………………………….. 134

A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP…………………………………………………….. 135

The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach………………………………………………. 135

Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP……………………………………………………………….. 137

The Fisher Effect……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 138

Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price……………………………………………….. 141

Explaining the Problems with PPP…………………………………………………………………………. 143

Trade Barriers and Nontradables……………………………………………………………………………… 143

Departures from Free Competition…………………………………………………………………………… 144

Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement………………………………. 145

box: Measuring and Comparing Countries’ Wealth Worldwide:

the International Comparison Program (ICP)……………………………………………………….. 145

PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run………………………………………………………………… 148

case study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries………………………………………. 149

Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates………….. 151

The Real Exchange Rate………………………………………………………………………………………….. 151

Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate…………………………………………….. 153

box: Sticky Prices and the Law of the Price: Evidence from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops……. 154

Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium………………………………………. 156

International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate…………………………….. 158

Real Interest Parity………………………………………………………………………………………………. 159

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 161

6 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 169

Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy………………………………………….. 170

Determinants of Consumption Demand……………………………………………………………………. 170

Determinants of the Current Account………………………………………………………………………. 171

How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account…………………………………….. 172

How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account……………………………………… 173

The Equation of Aggregate Demand……………………………………………………………………….. 173

The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand……………………………………………………….. 173

Real Income and Aggregate Demand………………………………………………………………………… 174

How Output Is Determined in the Short Run…………………………………………………………….. 175

Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule………………………………….. 176

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium……………………………………….. 176

Deriving the DD Schedule……………………………………………………………………………………….. 177

Factors That Shift the DD Schedule………………………………………………………………………….. 178

Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule…………………………………….. 181

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium………………………………………….. 181

Deriving the AA Schedule……………………………………………………………………………………….. 183

Factors That Shift the AA Schedule………………………………………………………………………….. 183

Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA

Schedules Together…………………………………………………………………………………………… 184

Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy……………………………………………………. 186

Monetary Policy…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 187

Fiscal Policy………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 187

Policies to Maintain Full Employment………………………………………………………………………. 188

Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation……………………………………………. 190

Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy……………………………………………………….. 191

A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply………………………………………………………………. 191

Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply…………………………………………… 192

A Permanent Fiscal Expansion………………………………………………………………………………… 194

Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account……………………………………………………… 195

Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics…………………………………. 197

The J-Curve………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 197

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation……………………………………………………………….. 198

The Current Account, Wealth, and Exchange Rate Dynamics………………………………………. 199

box: Understanding Pass-Through to Import and Export Prices…………………………………… 200

The Liquidity Trap……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 201

case study: How Big Is the Government Spending Multiplier?………………………………………. 204

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 206

7 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 216

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?…………………………………………………………………………. 217

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply………………………………………………………. 218

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply………………………………………………. 218

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply………………………………………………… 220

Sterilization…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 221

The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply……………………………………………………….. 221

How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate………………………………………………………… 222

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate……………………………. 223

Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate…………………………………………… 223

A Diagrammatic Analysis……………………………………………………………………………………….. 224

Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate……………………………………………………… 225

Monetary Policy…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 226

Fiscal Policy………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 227

Changes in the Exchange Rate…………………………………………………………………………………. 228

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes…………………………………………….. 229

Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight…………………………………………………………. 230

Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention…………………………………………………………… 233

Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention……………….. 233

case study: Can Markets Attack a Strong Currency? The Case of Switzerland……………….. 234

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect Asset Substitutability……………….. 237

The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability……………………. 237

Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention……………………………………………………….. 239

Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System…………………………………………………….. 240

The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard…………………………………………………………. 240

The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center…………………………………………………………. 241

The Gold Standard……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 242

The Mechanics of a Gold Standard………………………………………………………………………….. 242

Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard……………………………………………. 242

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard…………………………………………………………… 243

The Bimetallic Standard………………………………………………………………………………………….. 244

The Gold Exchange Standard………………………………………………………………………………….. 244

case study: The Cost to Become an International Currency: The Renminbi Case……………… 245

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 248

Part 2 International Macroeconomic Policy 261

8 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview 261

Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy……………………………………………………. 262

Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability………………………………………… 263

External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account………………………………………. 264

box: Can a Country Borrow Forever? The Case of New Zealand………………………………….. 266

Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Monetary Trilemma……………………… 270

International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard, 1870–1914…………………….. 271

Origins of the Gold Standard…………………………………………………………………………………… 272

External Balance under the Gold Standard………………………………………………………………… 272

The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism…………………………………………………………………………… 273

The Gold Standard “Rules of the Game”: Myth and Reality………………………………………… 274

Internal Balance under the Gold Standard…………………………………………………………………. 274

case study: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Conflict

over America’s Monetary Standard during the 1890s……………………………………………… 275

The Interwar Years, 1918–1939………………………………………………………………………………. 277

The Fleeting Return to Gold……………………………………………………………………………………. 277

International Economic Disintegration……………………………………………………………………… 278

case study: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression…………………………. 279

The Bretton Woods System and the International Monetary Fund………………………………… 280

Goals and Structure of the IMF……………………………………………………………………………….. 280

Convertibility and the Expansion of Private Financial Flows……………………………………….. 281

Speculative Capital Flows and Crises………………………………………………………………………… 282

Analyzing Policy Options for Reaching Internal and External Balance………………………….. 283

Maintaining Internal Balance…………………………………………………………………………………… 284

Maintaining External Balance………………………………………………………………………………….. 285

Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies………………………………………….. 286

The External Balance Problem of the United States

under Bretton Woods………………………………………………………………………………………… 287

case study: The End of Bretton Woods, Worldwide Inflation, and the

Transition to Floating Rates………………………………………………………………………………. 288

The Mechanics of Imported Inflation……………………………………………………………………….. 290

Assessment……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 291

The Case for Floating Exchange Rates…………………………………………………………………….. 292

Monetary Policy Autonomy…………………………………………………………………………………….. 292

Symmetry……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 293

Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers…………………………………………………………………… 294

Exchange Rates and External Balance……………………………………………………………………….. 296

case study: The First Years of Floating Rates, 1973–1990…………………………………………… 296

Macroeconomic Interdependence under a Floating Rate………………………………………….. 301

case study: Transformation and Crisis in the World Economy………………………………………. 302

case study: The Dangers of Deflation………………………………………………………………………. 308

What Has Been Learned Since 1973?………………………………………………………………………. 310

Monetary Policy Autonomy…………………………………………………………………………………….. 310

Symmetry……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 312

The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer…………………………………………………………… 312

External Balance……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 313

The Problem of Policy Coordination…………………………………………………………………………. 313

Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries?…………………………………… 314

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 315

9 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis 324

The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade……………………………………….. 325

Three Types of Gain from Trade………………………………………………………………………………. 325

Risk Aversion………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 327

Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset Trade……………………………….. 327

The Menu of International Assets: Debt versus Equity………………………………………………… 328

International Banking and the International Capital Market……………………………………….. 329

The Structure of the International Capital Market………………………………………………………. 329

Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading………………………………………………………. 330

The Shadow Banking System…………………………………………………………………………………… 331

Banking and Financial Fragility……………………………………………………………………………… 332

The Problem of Bank Failure…………………………………………………………………………………… 332

Government Safeguards against Financial Instability………………………………………………….. 335

Moral Hazard and the Problem of “Too Big to Fail”…………………………………………………… 337

box: Does the IMF Cause Moral Hazard?………………………………………………………………… 338

The Challenge of Regulating International Banking…………………………………………………… 339

The Financial Trilemma………………………………………………………………………………………….. 340

International Regulatory Cooperation through 2007……………………………………………………. 341

case study: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009………………………………………………… 343

box: Foreign Exchange Instability and Central Bank Swap Lines…………………………………. 346

International Regulatory Initiatives after the Global Financial Crisis…………………………….. 348

How Well Have International Financial Markets Allocated

Capital and Risk?…………………………………………………………………………………………….. 350

The Extent of International Portfolio Diversification…………………………………………………… 350

The Extent of Intertemporal Trade…………………………………………………………………………… 352

Onshore-Offshore Interest Differentials…………………………………………………………………….. 353

The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market…………………………………………………………. 354

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 358

10 Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro 363

How the European Single Currency Evolved……………………………………………………………… 365

What Has Driven European Monetary Cooperation?………………………………………………….. 365

box: Brexit…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 366

The European Monetary System, 1979–1998……………………………………………………………… 368

German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS…………………………. 369

Market Integration Initiatives………………………………………………………………………………….. 371

European Economic and Monetary Union………………………………………………………………… 371

The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone……………………………………………………….. 372

The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact……………………….. 373

The European Central Bank and the Eurosystem………………………………………………………… 374

The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism……………………………………………………………………. 374

The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas…………………………………………………………………. 375

Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area:

The GG Schedule……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 375

Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area:

The LL Schedule……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 377

The Decision to Join a Currency Area:

Putting the GG and LL Schedules Together……………………………………………………………. 380

What Is an Optimum Currency Area?……………………………………………………………………….. 381

Other Important Considerations………………………………………………………………………………. 381

case study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?……………………………………………………. 383

The Euro Crisis and the Future of EMU………………………………………………………………….. 386

Origins of the Crisis……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 386

Self-Fulfilling Government Default and the “Doom Loop”………………………………………….. 392

A Broader Crisis and Policy Responses……………………………………………………………………… 394

ECB Outright Monetary Transactions………………………………………………………………………. 395

The Future of EMU……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 396

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 397

11 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 402

Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy…………………………………………………… 403

The Gap between Rich and Poor………………………………………………………………………………. 403

Has the World Income Gap Narrowed Over Time?……………………………………………………… 404

The Importance of Developing Countries for Global Growth……………………………………….. 406

Structural Features of Developing Countries…………………………………………………………….. 407

box: The Commodity Supercycle…………………………………………………………………………….. 409

Developing-Country Borrowing and Debt…………………………………………………………………. 412

The Economics of Financial Inflows to Developing Countries……………………………………… 413

The Problem of Default………………………………………………………………………………………….. 414

Alternative Forms of Financial Inflow………………………………………………………………………. 416

The Problem of “Original Sin”…………………………………………………………………………………. 417

The Debt Crisis of the 1980s……………………………………………………………………………………. 419

Reforms, Capital Inflows, and the Return of Crisis……………………………………………………… 420

East Asia: Success and Crisis…………………………………………………………………………………. 423

The East Asian Economic Miracle……………………………………………………………………………. 424

box: Why Have Developing Countries Accumulated Such High Levels

of International Reserves?…………………………………………………………………………………. 424

Asian Weaknesses…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 426

box: What Did East Asia Do Right?………………………………………………………………………… 428

The Asian Financial Crisis………………………………………………………………………………………. 429

Lessons of Developing-Country Crises…………………………………………………………………….. 430

Reforming the World’s Financial “Architecture”………………………………………………………… 431

Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime…………………………………. 432

“Prophylactic” Measures…………………………………………………………………………………………. 434

Coping with Crisis………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 435

Understanding Global Capital Flows and the Global Distribution of Income:

Is Geography Destiny?………………………………………………………………………………………. 436

box: Capital Paradoxes…………………………………………………………………………………………. 437

Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 441

Mathematical Postscript 446

Postscript to Chapter 9: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification…………… 446

An Analytical Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio………………………………………. 446

A Diagrammatic Derivation of the Optimal Portfolio………………………………….. 447

The Effects of Changing Rates of Return………………………………………………………………….. 449

Index 453

Credits 465

Appendix A to Chapter 6: The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA Model

Appendix A to Chapter 7: The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments

This book is US$10. Order for this book:
(Request for sample pages click on "Order Now" button)

Book Order
Or, Send email: textileebooks@gmail.com

Share this Book!

Leave a Comment